It’s time to make your Oscar predictions! Who do you think will win tonight? Who do you think should win? Who is most likely to create an upset? Who do you think should have been nominated that was snubbed? Any lingering ghosts of Oscars past? Think Titanic was the biggest ship trainwreck in Oscar history? Want to debate whether Shakespeare in Love really deserved top honors over Saving Private Ryan back in ’99? (Yes, it did.) Here’s the place for any and all Oscar chatter!

Now, let’s see just how phenomenal my cosmic powers are…

Best Picture

• 127 Hours
  
• Black Swan
  
• The Fighter
  
• Inception
  
• The Kids Are All Right
  
• The King’s Speech
  
• The Social Network
  
• Toy Story 3
  
• True Grit
  
• Winter’s Bone

Will Win: The King’s Speech
Should Win: The King’s Speech
Most Likely to Upset: The Social Network

Best Actor

• Javier Bardem for Biutiful
• Jeff Bridges for True Grit
• Jesse Eisenberg for The Social Network
• Colin Firth for The King’s Speech
• James Franco for 127 Hours

Will Win: Colin Firth
Should Win: Colin Firth

Best Actress

• Annette Bening for The Kids Are All Right
• Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole
• Jennifer Lawrence for Winter’s Bone
• Natalie Portman for Black Swan
• Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine

Will Win: Natalie Portman
Should Win: Natalie Portman
Random Besmirchiness: Did anyone besides me find Annette Bening’s character in The Kids Are All Right to be completely unlikeable even though you were supposed to feel for her?
Also: What the heck is Rabbit Hole? I know Oscar is notorious for nominating movies that never hit the mainstream, but it’s strange that a star as big as Nicole Kidman could garner a nod for a film that flew completely under the radar.

Best Supporting Actor

• Christian Bale for The Fighter
• John Hawkes for Winter’s Bone
• Jeremy Renner for The Town
• Mark Ruffalo for The Kids Are All Right
• Geoffrey Rush for The King’s Speech
  

Will Win: Christian Bale
Should Win: Christian Bale
Most Likely to Upset: Geoffrey Rush
Biggest Snub: Matt Damon‘s Skeezy Mustache for True Grit

Best Supporting Actress

• Amy Adams for The Fighter
• Helena Bonham Carter for The King’s Speech
• Melissa Leo for The Fighter
• Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit
• Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom

Will Win: Melissa Leo, because she won the Golden Globe and the SAG.
Should Win: Hailee Steinfeld, because she had such a long script to memorize due to there not being any contractions in it. (Also, she made me care far more about her character than I did about any of the others.
Most Likely Upset: Helena Bonham Carter, because she won the BAFTA.

Best Director

• Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan
• Ethan Coen, Joel Coen for True Grit
• David Fincher for The Social Network
• Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech
• David O. Russell for The Fighter

Will Win: David Fincher, as a consolation prize for The Social Network.
Should Win: Christopher Nolan for Inception. Biggest snub of this year.
Most Likely Upset: Tom Hooper, because this year’s Oscars are pretty much a deathmatch between The King’s Speech and The Social Network.

Best Original Screenplay

• Another Year: Mike Leigh
• The Fighter: Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson, Keith Dorrington
• Inception: Christopher Nolan
• The Kids Are All Right: Lisa Cholodenko, Stuart Blumberg
• The King’s Speech: David Seidler

Will Win: David Seidler for The King’s Speech, because Best Picture usually wins screenplay or director, if not both, and The Social Network will take director.
Should Win: Christopher Nolan, because the most difficult script to write is the one that must build an entire world. He is the architect.
Most Likely Upset: Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, because the Academy wants to give something to The Kids Are All Right.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• 127 Hours: Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy
• The Social Network: Aaron Sorkin
• Toy Story 3: Michael Arndt, John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton, Lee Unkrich
• True Grit: Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
• Winter’s Bone: Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini

Will Win: Aaron Sorkin
Should Win: The Coen Brothers
Most Likely Upset: Toy Story 3, because the Academy wants to honor the entire Toy Story trilogy with one of the major awards.
Random Snark: When did they stop calling this award by the more concise title “Best Adapted Screenplay”? How do they fit the new title– “Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published”–on the statuette?

Best Animated Film

• How to Train Your Dragon
• The Illusionist
• Toy Story 3

Will Win: Toy Story 3
Should Win: How to Train Your Dragon

Best Cinematography

• Black Swan: Matthew Libatique
• Inception: Wally Pfister
• The King’s Speech: Danny Cohen
• The Social Network: Jeff Cronenweth
• True Grit: Roger Deakins

Will Win: Inception
Should Win: Inception

Best Score

• 127 Hours: A.R. Rahman
• How to Train Your Dragon: John Powell
• Inception: Hans Zimmer
• The King’s Speech: Alexandre Desplat
• The Social Network: Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross

Will Win: I don’t know–Oscar often flummoxes me here.
Should Win: How to Train Your Dragon

Here end my predictions; I’ve omitted most of the technical categories because I really don’t know enough about them (as if I’m an expert on the categories on which I have opined!) or care enough to judge.

Last August I read John Boyne’s novel, The Boy in the Striped Pyjamas, and while I appreciated the unique perspective through which the book depicted the Holocaust (that of an eight year-old boy who doesn’t understand what’s being done to the Jews), I was underwhelmed.

However, I just watched the movie, and for the first time in my life I think I can actually say I prefer a film to the original source.

(Wait.  Scratch that.  I also like the 1995 adaptation of Sense and Sensibility better than the book, but I’ll let Jane Austen off the hook because it was her first novel and I’m sure if she’d had a little more experience, her version would have been just as good as Emma Thompson’s.)

Anyway…while the film version of The Boy in the Striped Pyjamas remains doggedly faithful to the novel, it omitted what I now realize to be my key irritation with the book, which is the author’s device of depicting Bruno’s naïveté through his consistent mispronunciation of key words (fury for Führer and outwith for Auschwitz).  Also, the movie never named the concentration camp, which I thought lent a great deal more plausibilty to the premise of A) a free boy being able to observe the workings of a concentration camp from beyond the fence without being noticed by guards (not that other camps weren’t as horrific as Auschwitz, but its being the most notorious one, made it, in my opinion, perhaps not the best choice for the novel’s setting) and B) a young Jewish boy not having been immediately gassed upon entering the camp along with his grandparents.

So while the premise may still require an overall suspension of disbelief, the movie erases the flaws of the book so that this glimpse into the way we perceive good people and evil people (or, more accurately, people who are both good and evil — or have the capacity for both good and evil, which is all of us) stands out in a deeply profound way.  It’s a story that lingers with you after you’ve turned the final page (or turned off the DVD player), particularly after viewing it and having such clear visuals.

For me, even more than the utterly disturbing last scene, is the prominence of Nazi propaganda throughout the film.  Which was one other aspect of the book that bugged me; a boy Bruno’s age surely would have been indoctrinated against Jews in school — especially a boy who’s father ranks high enough to be made kommandant of a major concentration camp.  But this is not so in the book for the sake of Bruno’s absolute ignorance when he meets a young concentration camp inmate.  While the movie does stay true to this on Bruno’s part, it makes excellent use of his older sister, Gretel, who, after developing a crush on a young soldier, becomes enamored with The Hitler Youth and hangs on to the children’s Nazi tutor’s every word.  When Gretel is first introduced to us in the film, her arms are full of dolls; later, the dolls are relegated to the cellar while she plasters her bedroom walls with posters of Hitler and the League of German Girls.  The transformation is disturbing, to say the least; I’m not sure which is more so:  the image of a 12-year-old girl being so given over to a dangerous political movement, or of her mother being stunned speechless to see it.

Here I must comment that I particularly liked the way the film fleshes out Bruno’s mother.  The book focuses more on his father, and while the father remains at the heart of the film, I felt that, again, the plausibility of the premise was strengthened by the film’s omniscient point of view, which allowed us to see her dawning realization of just how final “The Final Solution” was.

Which brings me back to the other propaganda image that lingers with me almost an hour after I finished the movie.  At a crucial juncture in the story, Bruno stumbles upon his father, grandfather, and other Nazi officials viewing a propaganda film that depicts Jewish prisoners happily enjoying the “comforts” of the “work camp” after their day’s labor is complete:  they play organized sports, attend concerts, socialize at a cafe.  Bruno sees these images and believes his friend in the concentration camp is okay — that he is, in fact, happier than Bruno, who is not allowed to play in his own back garden and has no friends.  Despite having seen some Nazi propaganda, I’d never seen this, and was astonished and appalled that they could even have dressed up the concentration camps.  I almost didn’t believe it, thought it might have been an invention of the film-makers, so I googled.  Sure enough, a propaganda film was made at Theresienstadt in the now Czech Republic.

I really must get around to reading Anne Frank: The Diary of a Young Girl and watching Schindler’s List, which I keep putting off because I’m never in the mood.  When is one in the mood for the Holocaust?  One must look at it anyway.